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Canada Momentum — measuring Canada since the Rupture

WE ARE IN THE MIDSTOF A RUPTURE, NOT A TRANSITION.

PRIME MINISTER MARK CARNEY · DAVOS · JANUARY 2026 — Quoted to name the moment. Canada Momentum is not affiliated with any government or party.

Canada Momentum measures what happens next.

What has happened to Canada since the Rupture?

THE RUPTURETODAY

17 months measuredTrade data to July 2026

Merchandise exports · Statistics Canada 12-10-0182 · latest Jul 2026

THE GREAT REALIGNMENT

Canada exports 2.6% more than before the Rupture — $67.88B a month — to a materially different world.

Why we're saying this

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

Observations behind it: · trade.exports.total.all_countries (February 2024 – July 2026) · trade.exports.total.united_states (February 2024 – July 2026)

Source: 12-10-0182-01 · Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

Three dollars in four went to one customer, in the twelve months before the Rupture.

Interactive chart. Each point is the average month across the twelve months ending there. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted, so a twelve-month window is used: it holds each calendar month once, which takes the recurring seasonal pattern out of the comparison. Use the left and right arrow keys to move through the record. Press Escape to leave the chart.

Destination markets — expanded scale, ×5 · these 10 together are 32% of the United States line above

Each point is the average month across the twelve months ending there. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted, so a twelve-month window is used: it holds each calendar month once, which takes the recurring seasonal pattern out of the comparison.

Twelve-month averages, customs basis, unadjusted · baseline Feb 2024 – Jan 2025 · latest Jul 2026 · Statistics Canada 12-10-0182-01

The Rupture marker records when, never why. No cause is asserted.

THREE QUESTIONS

A falling American share also happens when a country simply sells less. These three questions separate a realignment from a decline.

Is Canada exporting more overall?

YES

Total merchandise exports are +$1.74B a month against the twelve months before the Rupture, or +2.6%.

Size recovered, and then some.

Why we're saying this

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

Observations behind it: · trade.exports.total.all_countries (February 2024 – July 2026)

Source: 12-10-0182-01 · Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

Is dependence on the United States falling?

YES

The United States share of merchandise exports is −7.6 points, to 68.8%, and exports to it are −$3.85B a month.

Why we're saying this

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

Observations behind it: · trade.exports.total.all_countries (February 2024 – July 2026) · trade.exports.total.united_states (February 2024 – July 2026)

Source: 12-10-0182-01 · Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

Are other destinations gaining enough dollars to matter?

YES — MORE THAN THE LOSS

Exports beyond the United States are +$5.60B a month against a $3.85B a month fall in exports to the United States.

Why we're saying this

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

Observations behind it: · trade.exports.total.all_countries (February 2024 – July 2026) · trade.exports.total.united_states (February 2024 – July 2026)

Source: 12-10-0182-01 · Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

The reading

The realignment is real.

Against the twelve months before the Rupture

−$3.85Bto the United States
+$5.60Bbeyond it
145%of the shortfall replaced

Exports beyond the United States are +$5.60B a month against a $3.85B a month fall in exports to the United States — a replacement ratio of 145%.

Why we're saying this

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

Observations behind it: · trade.exports.total.all_countries (February 2024 – July 2026) · trade.exports.total.united_states (February 2024 – July 2026)

Source: 12-10-0182-01 · Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

EVERY MARKET, ONE SCALE

Every destination on the same bar scale. The American bar dwarfing the others is the finding, not a problem to be rescaled away.

Bar scale · $0 — $50B per month · identical for every row

EVERY MARKET, ONE SCALE — Every destination on the same bar scale. The American bar dwarfing the others is the finding, not a problem to be rescaled away.
RankMarketExports per monthMagnitudeChange, dollarsChange, percent
01the United States$46.71B−$3.85B−8%
02the United Kingdom$5.72B+$3.26B+133%
03China$3.45B+$0.88B+34%
04destinations outside Statistics Canada's named partners$3.30B+$0.64B+24%
05Japan$1.16B−$0.09B−7%
06the Netherlands$1.02B+$0.41B+69%
07Mexico$0.84B+$0.12B+16%
08Germany$0.84B+$0.25B+44%
09South Korea$0.66B+$0.04B+7%
10France$0.53B+$0.16B+42%
11India$0.38B−$0.04B−9%
12Italy$0.35B+$0.06B+21%
13Hong Kong$0.31B+$0.03B+13%
14Indonesia$0.29B+$0.09B+42%
15Belgium$0.29B−$0.03B−8%
16Australia$0.28B+$0.02B+6%
17Switzerland$0.28B−$0.23B−45%
18Brazil$0.28B+$0.06B+31%
19Singapore$0.24B+$0.04B+21%
20Norway$0.22B+$0.03B+15%
21Spain$0.19B+$0.02B+9%
22Taiwan$0.16B−$0.01B−6%
23Algeria$0.12B+$0.00B+4%
24Peru$0.11B−$0.03B−22%
25Türkiye$0.10B−$0.01B−8%
26Saudi Arabia$0.07B−$0.08B−53%
27Iraq$0.01B−$0.00B−15%
28the Russian Federation$0.00B−$0.00B−24%

The Netherlands is up 69% and Germany 44% — together they add about +$669M a month. Exports to the United States are down $3.85B a month. Both figures are accurate. They are not comparable.

Why we're saying this

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

Observations behind it: · trade.exports.total.germany (August 2025 – July 2026) · trade.exports.total.netherlands (August 2025 – July 2026) · trade.exports.total.united_states (February 2024 – July 2026)

Source: 12-10-0182-01 · Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

Statistics Canada names 27 trading partners, a list frozen on 2012 trade shares. A market that grew after 2012 is not named and sits inside the residual. Rest of world here is total exports minus every market shown.

The second question

CANADA STRONG

Trade tells us whether Canada is realigning. Is Canada also becoming stronger?

There is no single Canada Strong score. No weighting has been approved, and one number would let a strong quarter hide a decade of stagnation. Four signals are reported separately, and they are meant to be read together.

01

PROSPERITY

BUILDING

Q2 2026 · FRESH

Output per Canadian is +1.8% since the Rupture in February 2025. It is 0.1% below its Q3 2022 high.

Real gross domestic product per capita, chained dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. A mean, not a median: it says nothing about who receives the output.

Why we're saying this

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

Observations behind it: · strong.prosperity.gdp_per_capita_real (Q3 2022 – Q2 2026)

Source: 12-10-0182-01 · Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

$60,944 per person · +1.8% · Q2 2026

02

PRODUCTIVITY

NOT YET

Q2 2026 · FRESH

Output per hour worked has not moved materially since the Rupture in February 2025 — +0.7% against a 1% threshold for a material change.

Business-sector output per hour worked, index. Business sector only — not government, not non-profits.

Why we're saying this

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

Observations behind it: · strong.productivity.business_labour_productivity (Q4 2024 – Q2 2026)

Source: 12-10-0182-01 · Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

105.3 · +0.7% · Q2 2026

03

INVESTMENT

NOT YET

Q2 2026 · FRESH

Business investment in structures, machinery and equipment has not moved materially since the Rupture in February 2025 — +0.9% against a 2.5% threshold for a material change.

Business investment in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment. Housing is excluded. Intellectual property — software, research and development, mineral exploration — is also excluded, so this measures physical productive capacity rather than investment in general.

Why we're saying this

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

Observations behind it: · strong.investment.business_nonresidential (Q4 2024 – Q2 2026)

Source: 12-10-0182-01 · Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

$216.70B a year · +0.9% · Q2 2026

04

WORK

NOT YET

August 2026 · FRESH

The prime-age employment rate has not moved materially since the Rupture in February 2025 — +0.2 points against a 0.5-point threshold for a material change.

Employment rate for ages 25 to 54, seasonally adjusted. A rate rather than a count, so population growth cannot manufacture a record. It says whether people are working, not whether the work is good.

Why we're saying this

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

Observations behind it: · strong.work.prime_age_employment_rate (January 2025 – August 2026)

Source: 12-10-0182-01 · Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

83.8% · +0.2 points · August 2026

The conclusion

WHERE CANADA STANDS

The realignment is working.

Canada sells $5.60B more a month outside the United States than in the twelve months before the Rupture, and $3.85B a month less to it. Total exports are +2.6%. The United States now takes 68.8% of Canadian merchandise exports — the lowest share in the record that begins in March 2024.

The change is uneven. Output per hour worked has not moved materially since the Rupture (+0.7%); business investment in structures, machinery and equipment has not moved materially since the Rupture (+0.9%); the prime-age employment rate has not moved materially since the Rupture (+0.2 points); and 58.2% of the gain outside the United States comes from the United Kingdom alone.

Canada is becoming less dependent on the United States without becoming smaller in the process.

Why we're saying this

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

Observations behind it: · trade.exports.total.all_countries (February 2024 – July 2026) · trade.exports.total.united_states (February 2024 – July 2026)

Source: 12-10-0182-01 · Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

SOURCES AND METHOD

Data as of
July 2026
Methodology
1.0.0
Publication
7 September 2026

Every figure on this page is generated from Statistics Canada source data, with trade data to July 2026. Nothing here is illustrative.

Adapted from Statistics Canada, table 12-10-0182-01 and related tables, 2026. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

Every series, and how each figure is produced
SOURCES AND METHOD
SeriesSourceFrequencyLatest observationFreshness
Merchandise exports, all countriesStatistics Canada 12-10-0182-01MonthlyJuly 2026NOT_YET_RELEASED
Merchandise exports, United StatesStatistics Canada 12-10-0182-01MonthlyJuly 2026NOT_YET_RELEASED
Real GDP per capitaStatistics Canada 36-10-0706-01QuarterlyQ2 2026FRESH
Business labour productivityStatistics Canada 36-10-0206-01QuarterlyQ2 2026FRESH
Business investment, non-residentialStatistics Canada 36-10-0108-01QuarterlyQ2 2026FRESH
Prime-age employment rateStatistics Canada 14-10-0287-01MonthlyAugust 2026FRESH

Latest observation is the period the data describes. Freshness is whether the next release is due, late, or not yet expected. They are different facts and are never combined.

Method

Trade is compared as twelve-month averages: the twelve months ending with the latest published month, against the twelve months ending January 2025, the last complete month before the Rupture. Monthly customs data are not seasonally adjusted and no adjusted version of the source exists, so a twelve-month window is used: it contains every calendar month exactly once, which substantially neutralises the recurring seasonal pattern without our estimating an adjustment of our own. It is not a seasonal adjustment, and it does not remove one-off calendar events.

CANADA STRONG

Canada Strong series are seasonally adjusted at source, so each is compared period to period against the last complete period before the Rupture. Each has its own threshold for a material change, set above that series' own measured period-to-period movement.

Merchandise exports include precious metals. Destination totals are not decomposed by product in this version, so no statement is made about what is being exported to any market.

LIVE DEMAND

Electricity demand is ambient context, not an economic measure. A higher reading does not mean a stronger economy, and it is not an input to anything on this page.

The Rupture marker records when, never why. No cause is asserted.

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